Building an End-to-End Gym Churn Prediction System: From Synthetic Data to SHAP Explainability

Building an End-to-End Gym Churn Prediction System: From Synthetic Data to SHAP Explainability

This week I built an end-to-end churn prediction system for fitness studio members - synthetic data generation, feature engineering, model training, SHAP explainability, and an interactive Streamlit demo deployed on my own infrastructure. The goal wasn't to write an expert-level paper on churn modeling. It was to rebuild the kind of system I've seen in production at fitness and franchise chains, end-to-end, so I understand every piece by hand rather than conceptually. Every subscription business loses members. For a fitness chain - Orange Theory, Equinox, a boutique studio - identifying at-risk members before they cancel is worth millions. A retention call to someone about to quit can save an account. The model's job is to output a churn probability and the reasons that probability is what it is - because retention managers can't act on 'this member has 73% churn risk.' They need: 'this member has dropped from 12 visits last month to 3, has two late payments, and lives 8 miles from their home studio.' That's something you can pick up the phone about.