Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado addressed energy executives at CERAWeek in Houston this Tuesday, confronting a stark reality: capital remains scarce despite regime change. Following the U.S. operation that ousted Nicolás Maduro in January 2025, the Trump administration has pressured firms to reinvest in the nation's vast crude reserves. Yet, industry leaders treat the opportunity as a high-variance risk model rather than a guaranteed return. Machado, who leads the movement toward a market economy, seeks to bridge the gap between Washington's political goals and corporate risk assessments. While interim President Delcy Rodríguez cooperates with the White House, major players like ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil refuse to return without enforceable legal frameworks. The shadow of the 2007 asset seizures under Hugo Chavez still looms over negotiation tables. Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips, provided a clear metric for the standoff. Venezuela owes his company $12 billion from past expropriations, and recent legal reforms under Rodríguez remain insufficient. Lance argued that attracting billions in required infrastructure investment demands policy durability across both Venezuelan and U.S. administrations. "You need policy durability — not only the Venezuelan side but the U.S. side," Lance stated. He questioned how future political shifts might alter contract validity. With no election timeline established, the systemic risk remains too high for most engineering-led capital projects. Until contract guarantees match the geological data, Venezuela's oil potential will likely remain stranded assets.

Source: CNBC