In the world of prediction markets, where bets are placed on everything from election results to sports championships, a new type of trader is gaining ground. It doesn't sleep, get emotional, or deviate from its plan. According to David Minarsch, co-founder of the firm Valory, autonomous AI agents are now providing individual traders with a persistent, strategic presence on platforms like Polymarket.
These agents, operating on the Olas protocol, are designed to execute trades around the clock. One such agent, Polystrat, executed over 4,200 trades in a single month on Polymarket, with some individual trades yielding returns above 370%. The concept is straightforward: while a person is occupied, their agent continues to analyze data and act.
The emergence of these tools comes as prediction markets have grown from a niche idea into a multi-billion dollar industry. Following a surge of attention during the 2024 U.S. election, the field has expanded rapidly. By 2025, total trading volume across major platforms had surpassed $44 billion.
Minarsch argues that AI agents can level a playing field increasingly dominated by automated systems. Data suggests only a small minority of human traders consistently profit on these platforms, while machines are not prone to emotional, rushed decisions. Early figures indicate more than a third of Polystrat agents are profitable, a rate reportedly double that of human participants.
Beyond just competing in major markets, Minarsch sees potential in what he calls the 'long tail'—countless smaller, niche questions that humans might overlook but that AI can systematically evaluate. This could broaden the utility of prediction markets as tools for gathering collective intelligence.
The development isn't without its questions. The rise of markets forecasting sensitive events necessitates careful consideration of ethics and regulation. Minarsch acknowledges the need for guardrails but also suggests AI could help monitor for manipulation.
The broader vision at Olas is an 'agent economy,' where individuals own and benefit from autonomous software that works on their behalf. In this view, prediction markets are merely the first test for a model where user-owned AI generates value, ensuring people retain a stake in an automated financial future.
Source: CoinDesk